Beef Market Forecasts for 2004

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mayor al
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2003/12/24 15:20:08 (permalink)

Beef Market Forecasts for 2004

OK Friends,
We have watched as the Beef market has manipulated the prices of consumer Meat to the point where the average person will cut back on buying and eating it. Prices have risen well over 50% in less than 6 months time. Various reasons for the increase have been spread all over the media...Lower production, increased red-meat consumption by the public, Feed costs, The Mid-Eastern War (?), and a host of other B S reasons.
Today we have a bulletin about a genuine Pissed-Off Bovine, I am reluctant to say MAD-COW ! Apparently in a herd in Moses Lake Washington. ( I must say if I were confined in a herd in Moses Lake, Washington, I would probably display signs of mental illness also). So the various groups who normally run around in circles preventing the spread of such stuff, are doing just that..
My question for the clarivoants in the group is--- What can we expect from the announcement of this incident? (assuming it is genuine) What will the resulting action do to the market for Beef?
Come on give it a shot...You may be right!
1. decrease demand resulting in the lowering of prices to increase consumption.
2. decrease supply due to destruction of herds, resulting in a major shortage, with a related major increase in price.
3. No effect, people will ignore the whole thing and blame it on the Special Interest Lobbiests.
4. Pork and other meat prices will rise sharply as a result of increased demand from the former beef consumers.
More and More Possible Answers. You choose and explain.
#1

92 Replies Related Threads

    Sundancer7
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/24 15:58:10 (permalink)
    Al: The mad cow disease presents a serious problem in several different ways:

    1: The cattle farmers will experience a serious financial setback immediately. I have a friend that has 500 beef cattle. More than like likely the price will drop like a rock and he will experience at least in the short run a several hundred thousand dollar price drop.

    2: Even more serious is the threat of Creutzfield Jacob disease which is prion based and not as understood as a virus. The incubation time of this disease is a decade. It is very concerning to the blood industry as they do not know how to test effectively. Blood transfusions will be affected.

    3: The short term and long term problems of this is crazy as the beef prices is the least of the problems. Eventually all countries will be affected. I saw where most of the world today has banned US beef. Canada and England has already been affected. Soon it will be the rest of the world. The real problems is not this. It is the health of the world. Prions are not understood and can be communicable and there will be no immunization.

    One cow out of about 50 million does not seem like a problem, but prions are.

    Paul E. Smith
    knoxville, TN
    #2
    CheeseWit
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/24 15:58:20 (permalink)
    Al, based on many stories I read from many different sources, I believe that prices will drop due to decreased demand. This decrease in demand will come from the Mad Cow Disease and the effect of countries banning our beef. Without the pounds being purchased for export, the suppliers will be forced to unload the beef here and I believe they will drop their prices.
    This does not bode well for beef producers.
    #3
    meowzart
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/24 18:10:40 (permalink)
    Sundancer nailed it. I think Americans will be oblivious to the disease until we see bloated cows being tossed in a bonfire like they had to do in Britain. Either that, or they won't care until CJD makes its presence known seriously here in this country. It's not a bacteria or a virus...it's a protein. The health world really doesn't know how to tackle this. If you've ever given blood, you know all the questions they ask and what can keep you from donating. Now it will be...have you eaten beef or a beef-by-product in the past 10 years? Can you imagine what that will do to the blood supply? Capnhank and jelybeans are going to be the only ones out there rolling up their sleeves. The trickle down from this could be horrendous. It does not bode well for anyone!
    #4
    seafarer john
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/25 14:54:00 (permalink)
    We had our 8 pounds of first four ribs Prime beef standing ribs last night and it was the absolute best we ever had. Took it out of the oven at 130 degrees and it was perfectly rare after a fifteen minute rest. We accompanied it with a slightly thickened jus, mashed potatoes, sauted cippolinins, and endive/beet/orange sections salad. A bottle of zinfandel and another of cabernet sauvignon went well with the meal.
    Dessert was a bouch de noel put together by one of my daughters-in law (one of the ones who never cooks at all) and it was fabulous along with coffee, a late harvest riesling and last of all some apple brandy.

    Life is good !!

    BTW: The roast was provided by our fish monger who has a connection to get very good beef (Prime or very top Choice). This is an annual favor he does for me (we've been good customers for over 40 years) and he sells it to me at his cost. This year he was a bit troubled and apologetic when he announced he had to charge me $110 for the meat. As I was in no position to complain considering the favor he has done over many years I paid the bill with the comment that beef prices certainly had gone up. When I got home he was on the phone, explained the error, and we now have a $48 credit at our fishmongers.

    Merry Christmas to all and a Happy New Year!!!
    #5
    Mongo
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/26 08:48:31 (permalink)
    These two cows were talking and one says "What do you think about this mad cow disease?"
    The other cow replies "What do I care? Im a helicopter"
    #6
    Oneiron339
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 09:20:48 (permalink)
    Beef futures have started to come down and should for awhile until this is sorted out. It looks like the tracing has been to Alberta, not from the US as previously thought. The Dems are starting to blame Pres. Bush for godsakes, wanting more gov't influence to "protect" everyone from tainted beef. And when I get to Alberta this week, I'm still going to have that burger!
    #7
    lleechef
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 12:19:06 (permalink)
    This mornings' headline: RECALLED BEEF WAS SENT TO ALASKA

    Great. The whole story can be found on www.adn.com

    I think I'll pass on the burgers for awhile. Everybody here is talking about this, there could be some serious economical repercussions to the beef industry if they don't get this under control.
    #8
    seafarer john
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 16:54:04 (permalink)
    Gosh .Oneiron, we all know Bush couldn't be to blame for the mad cow disease - he's all hat and no cattle.
    #9
    Lone Star
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 17:09:45 (permalink)
    I think that prices will plummet and everyone will boycott beef for a while, just like when the disease was rampant in England. However, I don't think it will last long as many will just give it "Chicken Little" attention.

    Chicken and Pork prices will rise accordingly.

    I read a report today that the protein that causes the illness is in the nervous system of the animal, i.e. brains and spinal cord. Paul, do you know anything about that?
    #10
    lleechef
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 17:55:25 (permalink)
    Lone Star, that is correct, it's in the brain and spinal cord. Even though it is technically outlawed, several packing plants take these parts and grind them up and sell them to feed companies (gotta sell the whole animal!) which mix these parts up with the feed, thus spreading the disease.
    #11
    Sundancer7
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 19:38:06 (permalink)
    Lonestar: You are correct when you say that it is primarly the brain and spinal cord.

    The problem is that no one understands prions. It ain't like virus and bacteria.

    Another problem is the incubation time. It is about five to ten years.

    CJD is a serious problem and the results is unpredictable.

    It is unclear how the problem will affect the blood and plasma donation process in the USA. That will be ascertained in the next few months.

    There is a question the the blood donation process now that ask if you have been in the UK and consumed beef? If that is implicated in the USA, it has severe implications to the blood donation process.

    Paul E. Smith
    Knoxville, TN
    #12
    Bushie
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 20:24:11 (permalink)
    quote:
    Originally posted by seafarer john

    Gosh .Oneiron, we all know Bush couldn't be to blame for the mad cow disease - he's all hat and no cattle.

    Nice try, SJ. Sorry though, you're wrong, as is clothier.

    Oneiron, as usual, is right on the money.

    I will say, though, that this is one of the instances where I believe government should regulate the feed. From everything I understand, this was originally caused by feeding ground bovine parts to cattle. Cattle are NOT cannibals, so it follows that they should not be eating their own dead.

    This one thing is something the government should outlaw, and enforce, because the primary purpose of government is for our collective protection. (Government is NOT there to protect us from ourselves, however; EVERYONE refer to the EXCELLENT comments by oneiron on the "smoking in restaurants thread".)

    However, we don't need to create another level of bureaucracy to oversight this. The beef industry, who has the most to lose by any problems with beef quality, will correct it.

    The dems DID come out today and try to blame this on Bush. Typical, and typically disgusting to those of us who care about reality.
    #13
    Sundancer7
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 20:35:19 (permalink)
    I found it incredible that the feed industry was feeding cattle feed fromother dead animals. It was outlawed in the late 1990's, however hard to enforce.

    It appears that the disease is being pursued, but it is of opinion that it will devistate the cattle industry before it is over.

    If it is like what happened to Europe and Canada, the beef industry will have a terrible problem.

    Paul E. Smith
    Knoxvillle, TN
    #14
    Bushie
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 20:46:25 (permalink)
    quote:
    Originally posted by Sundancer7

    I found it incredible that the feed industry was feeding cattle feed fromother dead animals. It was outlawed in the late 1990's, however hard to enforce.

    Well, OK then, if Congress has already passed a law, then it's up to the Executive Branch to enforce. And, they should do that!!

    Our "government" should be spending time and money on enforcement, instead of the usual "pass more laws" BS that those egostical idiots (Congress) spend all their time on.
    #15
    Sundancer7
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 20:51:44 (permalink)
    Bushie: How do you really feel about that

    Paul E. Smith
    Knoxville, TN
    #16
    meowzart
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 21:54:15 (permalink)
    People people people....we ARE in an election year (or will be in a few days). OF COURSE the dems are going to try to pin this on the republican pres. They ARE trying to win an election. If something like this comes up, OF COURSE they are going to try to spin it to their advantage. And I have no doubt that if the tables were turned, and we had a demecratic pres. and a bunch republicans gunning for office, the repubs wouldn't hesitate to use the story to their advantage either. That's how campaigning (and politics) works (fortunately or unfortunately) in this country.
    #17
    Roy
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/29 23:16:25 (permalink)
    One answer to the problem may be found at www.meatrix.org
    #18
    Sundancer7
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 04:44:21 (permalink)
    Roy: that was an interesting web site. I would not want to live close to a hog farm.

    Paul E. Smith
    Knoxville, TN

    #19
    Sundancer7
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 08:30:02 (permalink)
    The most dangerous thing about prions that are proteins is that cooking does not kill prions. Almost nothing can kill them. Scientist has taken the brain of a chimp that was stored in formaldehye for three years and injected it into another live chimp. The chimp developed CJD.

    Supposing the prion lives in the brain and spinal cord. We have been advised against consuming these particular parts. I wonder what is in balogna, salami, weiners, sausage and etc.

    Paul E. Smith
    Knoxville, TN
    #20
    CheeseWit
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 08:38:26 (permalink)
    For all of those thinking about joining Bushie and yours truly on the Cheesesteak tour: if you prefer NOT eating beef, there are chicken cheesesteaks available. Thought I'd let you know before I'm inundated with tour cancellations...lol!
    #21
    howard8
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 10:39:28 (permalink)
    CheeseWit: I'm still in for the cheesesteak tour.
    On a cable news station, one scientist indicated he would certainly not eat cow brain. He went on to say the cuts closer to the spinal cord of the cow, he would also avoid, such as t-bone. In Northwest Jersey, the Shoprite supermarket chain has been selling Australian beef for the past six weeks. The filet mignon is priced at $7.99 per lb and boneless rib roasts are $3.99 lb. I have had two so far and the taste is good. I actually prefer bone in rib roasts but the boneless is offered at a pretty good price. I age it in the fridge and roast low and slow.
    #22
    danimal15
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 11:38:23 (permalink)
    To those anti-government posters on this forum, I say this: If there's one thing I definitely want the government to do, it's to protect the safety of food for my family and me. I sure can't do much to make sure the food is safe, and it seems I can't trust the big meat companies to do it. That's when government comes in handy. Here in Chicago, the city shut down a restaurant last week because inspectors found rats in the kitchen. Would you anti-government types prefer that places like that stay in business?
    #23
    i95
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 11:42:29 (permalink)
    Only if the rats in the kitchen were marinating in a bold California Shiraz.
    #24
    lleechef
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 12:30:30 (permalink)
    It's official: according to this mornings' paper, we received tainted beef in Alaska. An excerpt from that article: "People can find out whether their meat was part of the recall by calling the market where they bought it."
    Are you kidding me? Where is the USDA in this equasion?
    #25
    Oneiron339
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 13:03:58 (permalink)
    quote:
    Originally posted by meowzart

    People people people....we ARE in an election year (or will be in a few days). OF COURSE the dems are going to try to pin this on the republican pres. They ARE trying to win an election. If something like this comes up, OF COURSE they are going to try to spin it to their advantage. And I have no doubt that if the tables were turned, and we had a demecratic pres. and a bunch republicans gunning for office, the repubs wouldn't hesitate to use the story to their advantage either. That's how campaigning (and politics) works (fortunately or unfortunately) in this country.

    Only if Clinton were still in office.
    #26
    Grampy
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 13:58:24 (permalink)
    I guess it's all just "beef-barrel" politics.
    #27
    Bill B.
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 14:46:08 (permalink)
    Walter Mondale was ahead of his time. ("Where's the beef?")
    #28
    Oneiron339
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 15:02:32 (permalink)
    If you want to check out some more liberal slant on this situation, check the website below. It seems the anti-capitalist, PETA-types, and environmental wackos may be behind alot of the scaremongering. Pretty interesting stuff.
    http://www.consumerfreedom.com/headline_detail.cfm?HEADLINE_ID=2282
    #29
    Lone Star
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    RE: Beef Market Forecasts for 2004 2003/12/30 15:19:42 (permalink)
    I checked out the CDC website, and it stated that the threat to Americans was "very low".
    #30
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