Could Mexico collapse?

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MikeS.
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2009/01/18 23:44:26 (permalink)

Could Mexico collapse?

Let me start off by saying that I used to go to Tijuana and farther South in Baja regulary while living in Calif. I took my 2 girls to TJ a couple times just so they could bettter appreciate what they had by seeing how other children had to live. I was last in TJ Oct of 2006. While there I saw several pickup loads of police or military with M-16s driving around. I'd never seen that before.
 
I copied this article from another website I visit. We think illegal immigration from Mexico is bad now? Well if the gov't there collapses just how much worse will things here become?
 
Topic: Mexico could collapse
    Posted: 14/January/2009 at 8:53pm U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible
By Diana Washington Valdez / El Paso Times
Related story: 2,000 fresh troops sent to Juarez as violence continues
EL PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.
The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.
"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."
The U.S. Joint Forces Command, based in Norfolk, Va., is one of the Defense Departments combat commands that includes members of the different military service branches, active and reserves, as well as civilian and contract employees. One of its key roles is to help transform the U.S. military's capabilities.
In the foreword, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis, the USJFC commander, said "Predictions about the future are always risky ... Regardless, if we do not try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America.":eek:
The report is one in a series focusing on Mexico's internal security problems, mostly stemming from drug violence and drug corruption. In recent weeks, the Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey issued similar alerts about Mexico.
Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps running into people in the region who "are in denial about what is happening in Mexico."
Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderon instructed his embassy and consular officials to promote a positive image of Mexico.
The U.S. military report, which also analyzed economic situations in other countries, also noted that China has increased its influence in places where oil fields are present.


 

#1

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    mar52
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2009/01/19 00:21:53 (permalink)
    It's a sad subject.  I used to go to TJ a couple times a year as it's only a little over a two hour drive.  One of the vendors, Arturo even knew my name.  Nice man who showed me pictures of his wife and little girls.

    I would buy incredible foods at the Commerciale American store and *gasp* medications at the farmacia.

    I absolutely LOVED going to Tijuana. I loved the street tacos and I even loved the 2 hour inching out of Mexico with the merchants trying to sell me their wares.

    Can't go now.  Too much violence.  People are getting killed.  The druggies are killing one another and anyone that gets in their way.

    It's just too risky.

    Without the tourists I don't know what will happen to the merchants.  They don't sell to locals.

    Yes, very sad in so many ways.
    #2
    EliseT
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/09 18:03:51 (permalink)
    FOLLOW UP: The cartel wars have been contained. I went to TJ last Fall and stayed in upscale hotels and dined on both Roadfood and at fancy restaurants. The Avenida was free of panhandlers and the barrios were cleaned up with none of the cardboard neighborhoods I once saw.
    #3
    EliseT
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/09 18:04:15 (permalink)
    FOLLOW UP: The cartel wars have been contained. I went to TJ last Fall and stayed in upscale hotels and dined on both Roadfood and at fancy restaurants. The Avenida was free of panhandlers and the barrios were cleaned up with none of the cardboard neighborhoods I once saw.
    #4
    chewingthefat
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/09 21:13:54 (permalink)
    EliseT

    FOLLOW UP: The cartel wars have been contained. I went to TJ last Fall and stayed in upscale hotels and dined on both Roadfood and at fancy restaurants. The Avenida was free of panhandlers and the barrios were cleaned up with none of the cardboard neighborhoods I once saw.

    You have got to be kidding! The place is a third world country, not far above sub Sahara crap holes.


    #5
    pnwchef
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/09 21:29:37 (permalink)
    The Cartel could take Mexico down to it's knees any time they want. All they have to do is start shooting tourists in beach resorts. They will have  a country of ghost towns............The Cartel has the Mexican Government by the short hairs...................pnwc
    #6
    mar52
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/09 22:27:40 (permalink)
    There are a lot of the cruise lines that have stopped going to some of the Mexican resort ports.
     
    I believe Disney just pulled one of their ships because they wouldn't stop in Mexico.
     
    On a good note, the new Rick Bayless show, One Plate at a Time is taking place in Tijuana and several of the Baja cities.
     
    Maybe that says something, but I still won't go.  
     
     
    #7
    Davydd
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/09 23:35:20 (permalink)
    My brother retired and bought a home a block from the beach in Chelem (west of Progreso) on the Yucatan Peninsula just last year. He claims it is safe.
    #8
    MetroplexJim
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/10 10:15:55 (permalink)
    "Could Mexico collapse?" is moot. 
     
    The entire hemisphere south of the Rio Grande has largely been in a state of continual collapse since the 1820's.
     
    As "Law" is simply what the Caudillo of the moment says it is, the rule of law is impossible;  so long as the right to property is "fluid", economic development and political stability is impossible. 
     
    As long as the population there continues to seek El Caudillo, Constitutions are simply wastes of paper.
     
    It is so tragically sad. 
    post edited by MetroplexJim - 2012/02/10 15:20:29
    #9
    porkbeaks
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/10 10:47:46 (permalink)
    See the May 2005 report "Building a North American Community" published by the Council on Foreign Relations.

    #10
    chewingthefat
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/10 11:36:40 (permalink)
    The Washington Post this morning, reported that the State Dept issued warnings of extremely dangerous 19 of the 31 States, for all travelers. The ONLY city deemed relatively safe was Mexico City. The remaining States only got a dangerous designation! Oh yeah, the Mexican Army busted a drug lab and got 15 tons of Meth, worth 4 billion dollars...think about our friendly neighbors to the South, they are taking over Southern Cal, great news!
    #11
    mar52
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/10 13:42:20 (permalink)
    I've heard that our soldiers that are based in El Paso have been issued the demand (not warning)...  DO NOT GO TO JUAREZ!
     
     
    #12
    plb
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/10 14:07:04 (permalink)
    There is a good article on this very subject on the first page of the second section of today's Wall Street Journal.  It notes that Mexico's economy is growing and that the big hotel chains are building lots of new hotels to cater to more visitors (although increasingly from countries outside of North America).
     
    I wonder to what extent Mexico is like Chicago in the 1930's or L.A. in the 1980's with lots of gang members killing other gang members but most people not directly affected.
     
    post edited by plb - 2012/02/10 14:12:21
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    Sundancer7
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/10 14:32:31 (permalink)
    When in doubt, don't.  I do not go anywhere there is risk involved.  I almost cancelled my trip to Panama for a birding trip but I was assured that there was no risk.  I did not see or encounter any although I was stopped on their version of interstate by very armed police.  They waved us through because I had binoculars, bird book and maps.  I guess they were looking for drug runners?
     
    Mexico is out of the question for me.
     
    Paul E. Smith
    Knoxville, TN
    #14
    Foodbme
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/10 15:31:26 (permalink)
    Want an interesting perspective on the subject?
    Read - "Mexifornia" by Victor Davis Hanson
    #15
    MetroplexJim
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/10 15:36:36 (permalink)
    Hmmmm ...  we have troops in Britain, Italy, Germany, Japan, Korea, all over the Middle East, under and on each ocean and sea; our reconnaissance assets can see FDR's face on a dime from space ... yet our own southern border is a sieve.
     
    What is wrong with this picture?
    #16
    SeamusD
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/10 16:24:46 (permalink)
    plb
    I wonder to what extent Mexico is like Chicago in the 1930's or L.A. in the 1980's with lots of gang members killing other gang members but most people not directly affected.


    With almost 40,000 people killed since 2008, I would say it's only to a small extent that it's gang members only killing other gang members. Mass graves found, people hung from bridges for speaking out against the cartels on internet forums, it's gotten increasingly gruesome. I have a friend living in central Mexico and she won't even mention anything anywhere online about the cartels, good or bad, because she's afraid they'll find out and come after her. They regularly post shocking videos of horrifying executions on the internet in order to show how willing they are to do anything to anyone that gets in their way.
    #17
    CajunKing
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/10 17:47:19 (permalink)
    Before this thread gets shot down for going down the political alley
     
    WB EliseT
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    mar52
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/10 22:22:21 (permalink)
    Mexico was on tonight's world news.
     
    If going to Mexico, do not stray past 2 blocks from your hotel.
     
    There go the tacos.
    #19
    pnwchef
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/11 09:29:04 (permalink)
    We stopped going to Mexico a few years ago, we also went to Puerto Vallarta. We always stayed at the same Condo on the beach with an ocean view for about $125 a night. We witnessed a Murder a few years ago in the parking lot of another Condo we were staying at, I guess the bars on the windows and Lanai should have been an early warning. My wife and I decided it's not really worth our lives for a few cheap tacos. I miss the cobble stone street and the old town simple life that this city offers. My wife and I would walk the Melecon in the morning, watch the fisherman bring in the fish to market. Stop for a fresh squeezed orange juice and Chivo tacos (goat) at my favorite taco stand. If you think Mexico is getting safer, it's only a facade. When you have  a country this poor and a Cartel that can buy the  souls of it's people, it's always going to be an unsafe situation. I think if the Mexican Gov ever really wanted to come down on the Cartel, it would be a bloody war. The Mexican Gov would loose, the mexican people would loose. The Mexican Gov knows the Cartel could start killing tourists in beach resorts and it would stop all travel to Mexico..............pnwc
    #20
    porkbeaks
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/11 09:38:00 (permalink)
    Heaven forbid we should engage in conversation any more controversial than the horrors of putting ketchup on hot dogs or preferring Miracle Whip over mayo. pb



    CajunKing

    Before this thread gets shot down for going down the political alley

    WB EliseT


    #21
    chewingthefat
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/11 12:24:02 (permalink)
    Ya think Carlos Heilu Slim has any bodyguards?
    #22
    Sundancer7
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/11 12:38:35 (permalink)
    A few years ago, I was working in Tucson and decided to visit Puerto Penasco which is called Rocky Point by most Americans who are the most frequent tourist in this town visited mostly Californians and Arizonians.  It is about 75 miles south of the Arizona border and has beautiful beaches.
     
    After you cross the Arizona border into Mexico, you drive through one small town and then there is absolutely nothing for about 50 miles.  You are totally alone and quite frankly, I felt very vulnerable.  Speed is not controlled and I was passed several times by cars that appeared to be doing better than 100mph.  At that time I felt safe there and the food was outstanding and the downtown on the water was vendors selling all kinds of live seafood.
     
    Due to the isolation and the state of flux that Mexico is in, I would not go there again although it was beautiful.  
     http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerto_Pe%C3%B1asco
     
    Paul E. Smith
    Knoxville, TN
    post edited by Sundancer7 - 2012/02/11 12:39:49
    #23
    mayor al
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/11 15:27:25 (permalink)
    Up to the time we moved out of SoCal (2000) we fished out of Ensenada at least 4-5 times a year. The old-road out of TJ was a real adventure with donkey carts and Toyota pick-ups with pieces falling as the main traffic issues. We avoided the Toll-road (xpressway) to save a few bucks each way. A stop at Porto Nuevo for a $7.00 Lobster dinner each way was mandatory. We always came home with a cooler full of fish for the freezer, and a feeling of a great weekend adventure.
      Since then one of my former associates who often joined us on these trips was shot (non-fatal) during a car-jacking of his vehicle near Rosarito Beach. Granted it could have happened here in the USA, but the legal system in Baja almost cost this guy his life. As it was he has a permanent scar and the loss of his truck to show for his adventure.
        While I am sure that there are ways to promote more than average security in some locations, I would tend to err on the side of caution and NOT go places where myself or my family could be considered to be "In Harm's Way".
    #24
    mar52
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/11 16:42:27 (permalink)
    Al, those lobster dinners at Puerto Nuevo was one of the reasons for a trip down south.
     
    Did you buy the $7 lobsters or the larger lobsters they tempted you with?
     
    My favorite thing to do was shopping at Commercial Mexicana.  I'd come home with wonderful Mexican canned goods, delicious fresh mole pastes, freshly made tortillas and a bottle of Rompope and Kahlua.
     
    It really bothers me that it's a thing of the past.
     
     
     
    #25
    MetroplexJim
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/12 08:43:16 (permalink)
    porkbeaks

    Heaven forbid we should engage in conversation any more controversial than the horrors of putting ketchup on hot dogs or preferring Miracle Whip over mayo. pb



    CajunKing

    Before this thread gets shot down for going down the political alley

    WB EliseT



    I do prefer Miracle Whip. 
    And the Rule of Law, not men. 
    Kidnappings and beheadings are so "un-American".
    Ketchup on hot dogs I do find to be disgusting.
    And "those people" who splatter ketchup over their french fries:  OMG, don't get me started.
    #26
    joerogo
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/12 11:14:59 (permalink)
    I think Mexico is definitely heading for a collapse.  The politicians, police, military, etc. are all in bed with the drug lords.  And none of them have any regard for human life.  The loss of innocent life there is staggering, beyond comprehension.
     
    I believe it is only a matter of time before we are faced with a crush of refuges along our southern border.  In the meantime, heed the State Departments warnings.
     
    porkbeaks, Putting ketchup on a "Mealie" will get you a one way ticket to Juarez
     
     
    post edited by joerogo - 2012/02/12 11:35:35
    #27
    porkbeaks
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/12 11:35:49 (permalink)
    joerogo


    porkbeaks, Putting ketchup on a "Mealie" will get you a one way ticket to Juarez




    I'm not sure that John and Joe don't feel the same way about mustard on one of their mealies. They are perfection just the way they are.

    #28
    chewingthefat
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/12 11:40:23 (permalink)
    The drug cartels are as bad as the Taliban, maybe worse, perhaps they need a helping of Predator!
    #29
    pnwchef
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    Re:Could Mexico collapse? 2012/02/12 11:49:30 (permalink)
    porkbeaks

    joerogo


    porkbeaks, Putting ketchup on a "Mealie" will get you a one way ticket to Juarez




    I'm not sure that John and Joe don't feel the same way about mustard on one of their mealies. They are perfection just the way they are.


    pb, wouldn't that be a great country to live in, a fantasy kind of country that restaurants put condiments on the tables so people would have a choice. We can only dream of this kind of place that lets people have a choice......................pnwc
    post edited by pnwchef - 2012/02/12 20:42:45
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