Festival attendance numbers

Hi everyone,
 
Just got signed up for my first  festival and attendance is approx 15000 people.    How is the best  way to calculate approximaely how many people you should anticipate at your first show.  I do fresh handbreaded onion rings, fries, chili cheese fries,  homemade chile, chili dogs,  burgers, fresh chicken tenders, corndogs, panini sand (steak or chicken), soda & water.   I estimater I should get at least 5% of the drawing.  I will be located right in the heart of all the entertainment of this small town festival.   Can anyone help if I expect too much?    I have handles bike shows at the dealership where Iwork of about 3000 people.   This is a captive group though.  Any assistance
 
Thanks
 
Ray

How many other vendors? And what are they selling?

someone on here said a while back that 10% is a good rule of thumb to start off.
can you carry enough product for 1500 orders?
even if so, i would have a support team on speed dial waiting to dash to the store on moments notice well before you run out of anything if you see it headed in that direction.
 
better yet, two equal "stock supplies" for say 750 each...then just sort of play it by ear as the day goes....

like chef said, what are the other vendors doing?
what "normal meal time" hours will you be there
are you covering breakfast to lunch hours, lunch and dinner hours, or after lunch to late night hours, or all three ??
 
good luck to you! i hope you get out there and do 5000 orders
wow, thats a lot of meat

You need to know how much food you can put out in a day.
I know the max dollar amount I can put out of my trailer in a day,  that's the max I will buy or prep for.
1500 is way off unless you have a huge trailer and crew.
That would be  93 people an hr in an 8 hr day, for 750.
1.5 per minute......
Can you serve this fast?
 

We use 3% to 5% for our base calculations and then look at what we are actually able to sell. You really need to know what kind of competition you will have and their menu. Your menu is quite extensive which may mean some overlap from other vendors. Of course this is the beginning of the season and any non perishable surplus food items can be saved for the next event.
We have yet to attend an event that had the attendance that the promoters advertise. What we started doing last year is to network with other food vendors. Our menu is more specialized and most vendors don’t feel threatened by us. We decided this year to limit our menu to a particular theme that we haven’t seen on the circuit. Even our new food items are simple and most of the remaining items can be stored or frozen until the next festival. This way we can purchase in bulk, have on hand if needed, and store unit next time. The only item we will lose is the bread.
It appears that a lot of your menu can be handled the same way. Bread is relatively inexpensive and we used to donate what was left over to local baseball teams. If you can prepare most of your menu on site then it is easier to store / freeze the remaining ingredients. If this is a multiday event then you might be able to restock.
Good Luck

First, this is a one day event, serving  10 to 6PM.  No breakfast, I will do alot of prep the day before and the will be approx 10 - 15 other vendors there.  Most of my items are very simple and quick,  Have a staff of 4 plus myself to handle.  Like you said bread is the only perishable item.   I have another event 2 week later..Plenty of storage  for excess stock.  I plan on carring enough for 1000 people .   Plua weather will play alot in it which I should know 1 week ahead if it will be somewhat warm or cold here in tenn.   My unit had 3 windows to serve from and with 2 45 lb fryers and 3ft grill I should be able to keep up. I also have a 3 bay steam table and panini grill capable of making 4 sand every 2 min.   I am looking high but I think I can make it thru.  Also have anought ref for 300 can plus a spare ice chest whichholds another 150 can.  Am I expecting too much?  I hope to make the best of a great situation
 
Any Comments?

Hope for the best....... I hoped this weekend... the weather sucked, attendance was way down this year over past years.
I have $75 grand in my equipment, I worked all weekend, my helper made more $$ than I did.

Sorry to hear .   Like you said with the economy this year, we just don't know.  We are in the 30s today and 60 by this weekend.  The weather here is up and down.  I will know about a week what the weather will be and can adjust.  I have about hald in my trailer but this is my 1st event this year.  Have booked 8 others though.  Hope things get better for you

we always cut the attendance figures in half. they like to stretch the truth some.