Should we stay or should we go?

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Mosca
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2012/01/11 13:35:34 (permalink)

Should we stay or should we go?

First off, I kind of already know the answer....
 
We're taking our daughter back to school in South Bend this weekend. We are planning on driving Friday. She has to be there Sunday, but we have lots of friends and relatives in the area and figured to have Saturday to visit with some of them.
 
There's a snowstorm in the forecast. It is supposed to start Thursday... wait, I'll cut and paste it:
 

... WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
.A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW... LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 COULD SEE BETWEEN 6 TO 12 INCHES WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH COULD SEE BETWEEN 3 TO 8 INCHES. IN ADDITION... STRONG GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WITH WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LIKELY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT OVER SECTIONS OF INTERSTATE 94... THE TOLL ROAD AND MANY US HIGHWAYS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS FRIDAY... WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE EVENTUAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

 
The forecast for NW PA and Northern Ohio is OK; light snow, no advisories. Right now I'm thinking, go Saturday. There's no reason to be there Friday.
#1

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    felix4067
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 14:04:36 (permalink)
    It's kind if a crap shoot with the lake...sometimes that area is perfectly fine, and sometimes weather hits the lake and bounces down there giving us nothing and leaving them completely screwed. Officially now it's not supposed to start until late Thursday (they're probably going to push the start time of the winter storm warning back a few hours), so if you can leave Thursday it might be better. I realize that may not be practical. But waiting until Saturday might be pushing it, especially if it continues through Friday like they're now saying. What sucks is South Bend is pretty much directly in the land of lake effect snow.
     
    On the other hand, they're making this sound like this year's version of snowpocalypse, and that was nothing more than a regular winter snowstorm.
     
    I realize I'm not much help, sorry.
    post edited by felix4067 - 2012/01/11 14:05:42
    #2
    CajunKing
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 15:03:27 (permalink)
    I would go Saturday, unless you like driving in the snow with the other idiots (not meaning you) out there.
     
     
    #3
    Mosca
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 15:13:22 (permalink)
    There's also the choice to drive halfway, to Cleveland or so, on Friday, then wait and see what Saturday brings.
     
    Edit: Cajun, that's exactly what I'm thinking, about the idiots. Even if we go, it snows like a bastige, and I make it fine, my presence out there hampers rescue and cleanup.  
     
    post edited by Mosca - 2012/01/11 15:19:55
    #4
    fishtaco
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 15:20:45 (permalink)
    I say go. And crank up The Clash for your listening pleasure!
    #5
    ScreamingChicken
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 15:40:05 (permalink)
    Personally I'd leave early and try to get there before the storm hits.  Granted, you might wind up having to spend an extra day or 2 away from home but IMO it beats being delayed because the storm turned out to be worse than expected.  How long a drive is it, anyway?
     
    This reminds me of semester break my freshman year.  My parents took me back to Des Moines on Jan. 10, 1982 - the day the Bengals and Chargers played the AFC championship game in a -59F wind chill and the weather wasn't much better across Illinois and Iowa.  I also remember that that night a few of us were drinking Lone Star, cheap lambrusco, and cheap tequila...worst hangover of my life the next day and I haven't touched tequila since.
    post edited by ScreamingChicken - 2012/01/11 15:43:01
    #6
    joerogo
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 15:46:07 (permalink)
    Tom, If I listened to the weatherman, I'd never work.
     
    What the heck, go early...stay late!
    #7
    Mosca
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 15:49:22 (permalink)
    It's 9 hours, and if I wanted to go early it's already to late to do that; if we left tomorrow morning we'd be in the teeth of it by 3PM or so. We can get there as late as Sunday evening, so later is better.
    #8
    Foodbme
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 16:32:28 (permalink)
    Check with the Indians AND the Weatherman:
    "It was October and the Indians on a remote reservation, (Near Cleveland) asked their new Chief if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a Chief in a modern society he had never been taught the old secrets. When he looked at the sky he couldn't tell what the winter was going to be like.
    Nevertheless, to be on the safe side he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared. But being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is the coming winter going to be cold?"
    "It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold," the meteorologist at the weather service responded.
    So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared. A week later he called the National Weather Service again. "Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?"
    "Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be a very cold winter."
    The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find. Two weeks later the Chief called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"
    "Absolutely," the man replied. "It's looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters ever."
    "How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.
    The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy."
    #9
    felix4067
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 17:25:14 (permalink)
    I'd leave as planned on Friday then, if you can't get there beforehand. It's supposed to be blowing and drifting, but they're only calling for moderate accumulation Friday during the day, and light accumulation Friday night. It's going to be stupid cold, though. And since it's an option to stop along the way, you can always do that and try again Saturday morning if it gets too bad.
     
    I think this is going to turn out to be yet another overhyped "storm" by the weather people. It's winter. It's the Great Lakes. Snow happens. It's just that it's been ridiculously warm and we've had very little snow (in my area, they had to go all the way back to 1932 to find a year when we had this little snow at this time), so people are going to be even stupider than they normally are when the first storm happens.
    #10
    chewingthefat
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 17:29:46 (permalink)
    Stay home, drink Beer!
    #11
    Sonny Funzio
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 21:37:46 (permalink)
    I would say, go Friday.  If the snow is bad enough that is really causes a big mess, they won't have it cleaned up by Saturday anyway ... particularly any roads other than Interstates and State Highways.
    Put typical "travel emergency" and snow-travel items in the car ... tool kit, flashlight etc, "help" sign, 40lbs of salt, a good coal shovel, some "emergency" winter clothes (overalls or big coats) ... make sure you take your warmest boots (Sorrel's or LaCrosse etc), some extra food and water, car charger for the cell phone, uh, a bottle of hard liquor (in case you need to start a fire, bribe someone, put it in the gas tank, signal aircraft for help ... or get snowed in at the hotel)   ... and go.
    #12
    felix4067
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/11 23:25:48 (permalink)
    OK, so the forecast was just on. Granted, I'm about two hours north of where you're going, but that corner is supposed to get the ugliest snow. However, as far away from the lake as South Bend is, they're only expecting about 6-10 inches. Thursday is supposed to start with rain, changing over to snow and getting to the ugliest point around 10pm. So...my advice stands. Leave as planned on Friday, but be prepared to stop halfway if it gets ugly. Good luck and drive safe!
    #13
    Mosca
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/12 10:10:48 (permalink)
    The Friday forecast for Clearfield/Dubois etc (northwest Pennsylvania) is 2-4" Friday into Friday afternoon.
     
    The operating factor is "need to be there". We don't have any need to be in South Bend until Sunday. For me as the driver, I don't want to be overly stressed out by bad driving conditions, and I-80 is usually not well cared for by the Commonwealth.
     
    I'm keeping my options open for now, other than there's no way we're driving the entire trip on Friday. It's either half Friday and half Saturday, or all day Saturday.
    #14
    kland01s
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/12 10:53:43 (permalink)
    Even though it's out of the way, what about dropping father south before heading west? I've done this a few times in the past and it's better than white knuckle driving. Snow just started here about 45 miles west of Chicago. My goofy local municipality already "plowed" our street with maybe all of less than 1/4 inch on the ground. Didn't put down any salt though, just plowed!
     
    edit: Ok, sorry, I just looked at the weather maps and you would have to go really far south! Might as well just hit the Gulf and winter there!
    post edited by kland01s - 2012/01/12 10:58:45
    #15
    Mosca
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/12 22:03:19 (permalink)
    It's Saturday. All the input from here was pretty helpful, actually.
    #16
    CajunKing
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/12 22:45:32 (permalink)
    THIS JUST IN
     
    It took my sister 2 hours to get 15 miles in Fort Wayne this evening.  The rain turned to snow and the temps plummeted then the roads got FUBARED.
     
    They should be cleared up by Friday even with the other bands of snow coming in.
     
    So come on over and enjoy the white ****e!
     
     
    #17
    Mosca
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/12 23:08:16 (permalink)
    CK, there'll be 2-4 across the upper tier of PA, along with 40-50 mph winds. Couple that with the truth that PA doesn't do a good job of clearing I-80, and stir in some "bridge freezes before road surface" and a dozen or so bridges that span deep gorges, and factor in that there's no reason to be there Friday instead of Saturday...
     
    And when I got home and told Mrs Mosca, she laughed and said, "Hell no, no one's packed and the laundry isn't going to be done by tomorrow morning anyhow."
     
     
    #18
    CajunKing
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/13 01:32:37 (permalink)
    Well then you got your answer
     
    We should have asked the boss in the first place
    #19
    Mosca
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/14 22:33:26 (permalink)
    Man, tell you what; even today it was dicey across northern PA. Flurries kept the air with enough moisture to mess the windshield but not enough to work the wipers, and then the washer fluid froze in the nozzles. I stopped, cleared it out using a pin, and it froze again in about 10 minutes. This continued all morning. Along about Cleveland the roads dried out, and it wasn't an issue after that, and when we arrived in Elkhart I went to KMart and got some SubZero washer fluid, cleared out the tank by running the squirter, filled up with the SZ and all is fine.
     
    But son of a gun, cold wet roads and no visibility through the Alleghenies at 65mph surrounded by trucks, that was what I was trying to avoid. (For the entire trip we saw 7 accidents: 6 overturned tractor trailers and one rolled over SUV.)
    #20
    ScreamingChicken
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/15 13:16:03 (permalink)
    Glad you made it safe, Tom.  I understand all too well those types of driving conditions!
     
    Hopefully the trip home will be far less "interesting".
     
    Brad
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    Foodbme
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/15 22:04:38 (permalink)
    Glad you're safe!
    I used to live 20 miles North of I-80, (Penfield Exit) in Western PA.
    That's why I'm now in AZ. We don't need to shovel sunshine!
     
    post edited by Foodbme - 2012/01/15 22:11:42
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    Davydd
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/15 22:39:26 (permalink)
    Foodbme

    Glad you're safe!
    I used to live 20 miles North of I-80, (Penfield Exit) in Western PA.
    That's why I'm now in AZ. We don't need to shovel sunshine!


    Yeah, but I am still cleaning out dust from all the nooks and crannys in my RV from a dust storm in Arizona. Snow melts.
    #23
    Foodbme
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/16 00:36:53 (permalink)
    Davydd
    Foodbme
    Glad you're safe!
    I used to live 20 miles North of I-80, (Penfield Exit) in Western PA.
    That's why I'm now in AZ. We don't need to shovel sunshine!

    Yeah, but I am still cleaning out dust from all the nooks and crannys in my RV from a dust storm in Arizona. Snow melts.

    You're Welcome! We always like to send a little Haboub souvenir home with our visitors. A little Momento!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vQMuwRjI6s&feature=related
    #24
    Mosca
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/16 19:16:44 (permalink)
    Yesterday's forecast for today was for rain/freezing rain in the afternoon along I-80, but this morning had the temps forecast for around 40* and the rain for late afternoon. So we left South Bend at 9AM and really beat feet across Indiana and Ohio. We hit the Ohio/PA border about 1:30PM and made Mountain Top @ 5:40PM. We stopped at Luigi's for dinner (I had pesto chicken, MJ had baked ziti w/sausage), and when we stepped outside at 6:30, it was freezing rain... good thing we live about half a mile from Luigi's!
    #25
    CajunKing
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    Re:Should we stay or should we go? 2012/01/17 16:04:55 (permalink)
    Glad to hear you made it here and back again.
    #26
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