I have always been very grateful to my fellow economist Bill James both for his historical and seminal statistical work in this, the team sport of all team sports.
And, I was a big fan of Billy Beane even before the term "Moneyball" was coined. Year after year he has made a winning team of the low budget A's with chewing gum, spit, bailing wire, and sealing wax. And, he was prescient enough to sign the first of the 'new' Cubans: Yoenis Cespedes.
But this year he came to the realization that "My sh*t doesn't work in the playoffs
". Well and good, but you have to get there first. Trading Cespedes and a compensation pick for a rental of Lester was, IMHO, insane.
So Billy never liked Cespedes' OBP. Big whoop. There are other things, like freaking RUNS
! Cespedes actually has more runs produced (RBI + Runs Scored - HR
) this year (157) than either of the more celebrated Cubans, Puig (123) and Abreu (141). Without Cespedes, the A's have dropped like a rock, rivalling the Pholding Phillies of 1964
(BTW: Bill James used "runs produced" - a truly fundamental, bottom line stat - way before he dreamed up OPS and WAR
And, to twist the knife, next year Cespedes will be giving run support to the guy he was traded for!
You just do not
trade a 28 y.o. proven - and improving
- everyday clean-up hitter for a rent-an-arm, hoping that some half-a$$ platoon of Gomes, Gentry, and Fuld will replace him. YIKES!
Looks like it'll be Bourbon & bitters instead of champagne for Billy and the A's this year.
post edited by MetroplexJim - 2014/09/14 11:17:22