Re:Too early for college football? ('09 Version)
Mon, 07/13/09 5:18 PM
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ND going 10-2 - well, ok, let's look at this - BEST case scanario:
Nevada: not a walk-over. ND may win by 10 points if they're clicking on all cylinders, but no more. (MY Predict: ND 24, NEV 17) (1-0)
Michigan: Michigan falls flat, you may see a repeat of last year. Again, I see a rebounding Michigan, but maybe ND can take their NEV win and roll another in the Big House with a still rebounding MICH expect to be an also-ran in the Big 10: ND 27, MICH 20 (2-0)
Mich St.: Mich St looking for another solid year and a chance for a Big Ten championship, will eat up ND to hand ND their first loss and the first opportunity to knock-down Charlie Weiss. Mich St. 30, ND 17. (2-1)
Purdue: A Chance for ND to rebound, except they're on the road and Purdue makes a run early. However, ND won't lose to the future last place Big Ten team: ND 33, Purdue 24. (3-1)
Washington: The Huskies are not there yet, and may not repeat as the PAC-10 bottom, but it won't be a pretty season. Travelling to South Bend will compound their problems ND rolls in an impressive manner, ND 31, WASH 10 (4-1)
USC: This game won't be close as some think after the Washington game, as the over-inflated Irish get to stay home, yet another week, and are feeling relaxed, now ranked (4-1) in the polls for the first time in a long while. This loss will wipe them out of the top 25 - making things worse for their ranking, is the declining records of the teams they have beat so far. USC 38, ND 24 ( an improvement over last year's enbarassment) (4-2)
Boston College: ND licks their wounds and handles a BC team that isn't as sturdy as last year's team. Claussen is brilliant against BC's secondary. ND 35, BC 21 (5-2) depending on BC's record ND can mange to enter the bottom of the polls again.
Washington St.: Another Pac-10 bottom feeder, and thei 4th home game in a row, ND sweeps the Wazzou; ND 31, Wash St. 17 (6-2)
Navy: Don't need to say a lot. ND will not lose this game. Score is unimportant. ND improves to 7-2 and climbs into top 20 - with some SEC teams screaming foul play, as only Nevada and BC of ND's wins are posting a winning record (BC is only 5-4), and neither team is ranked. (7-2)
Pittsburgh: No matter what Pittsburgh team shows up, if the season described above is actually happening, Claussen will be in full form and ND wins by 11. (8-2) Beating a middle of the road Big East team, ND is getting higher ranking but the nay-sayers have grown louder, and the impending BCS berth will be in full controversy mode.
UConn: Probably a win there. Still a work-in-progress at UConn. (9-2)
Stanford: end of season let down? not if they want their BCS birth. (10-2)
ok. but this really isn't reasonable. Right now BC and Pitt are almost neck and neck with ND ome preseason polls. Nevada is a sleeper team, Michigan could be a sleeper (even though analysists haven't mentioned them in the Big Ten race), Given these points, 10-2 is the absolute best you can hope for, but realistically a 9-3 or 8-4 season, no-bcs birth is in the future. This, though, is a great improvement over a team that lost to Syracuse - at home.
Even at 10-2, if Michigan, BC, and Pitt aren't solid teams, in their respective leagues (which is not expected to happen) the 10-2 is worthless with wins over a non-bcs team and unranked teams. With that record, against those teams, ND wouldn't deserve a BCS bowl bid. IMO, the only way ND can go to BCS is 11-1 - that's a win over Mich St or USC.
It's not the juiciest schedule for BCS ranking points, but, given the large # of home games and soft scheduling, they actually could go 10-2. But, I strongly doubt it. Clausen should have the break out year Weis has invested in, but not THAT break out - I'm simply not sure he has the horses around him to make it happen - despite a prolific bowl against University of Hawaii.
I predict 9-3.; No BCS game and Weis is out at season's end with no real wins over the last few years to talk about - but a bunch of bad losses.