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 Corn prices

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tmiles

  • Total Posts: 1909
  • Joined: 10/1/2004
  • Location: Millbury, MA
Corn prices Tue, 11/13/12 5:34 PM (permalink)
High corn prices are here. I'm not talking sweet corn, but rather field corn used to make animal feed, or processed as an ingredient to make food for us. The U. S. will be a net importer this season, and prices are high. Look for more "grass fed" beef as the season wears on. I also predict lower grades of beef as feedlot times are shortened. (less prime and choice).  Farmers can get by without corn for cows and sheep, but commercial pork and chicken production requires lots of corn.
 
Congress may cut the ethanol mandate to make more feed available, but if I were getting laid of at my ethanol job, I'd be unhappy. There are no easy choices. Congress has a big job when they come back. Please don't turn this into a political discussion.
 
#1
    MetroplexJim

    • Total Posts: 3705
    • Joined: 6/24/2007
    • Location: McKinney, TX
    Re:Corn prices Tue, 11/13/12 6:37 PM (permalink)
    Of course, everything Congress does is with the very best of intentions which are, in turn, beset with unintended consequences.
     
    Based on sugar cane, Brasil has the world's largest and most technologically developed ethanol industry.  They would LOVE to sell us all the ethanol we want (or Comgress can "mandate") all delivered for a price less than our present costs of production.
     
    Further, cane ethanol burns more efficiently and does less damage to engines than our corn-based product does.  And, environmentalists would be pleased when the "dead zone" in the Gulf at the mouth of the Mississippi is reduced due to a lessening of the fertilizer runoff.
     
    Of course doing this would make too much sense (to say nothing of lower food prices in the U.S. and maybe real cane sugar in my Coca Cola).  I hope for the day when the Will of the People causes Congress to gag on their contributions from "Big Agra" and "Big Sugar" and come to their senses.
     
    I'm not holding my breath. 
     
    #2
      felix4067

      • Total Posts: 3296
      • Joined: 12/13/2003
      • Location: Near Grand Rapids, MI
      Re:Corn prices Tue, 11/13/12 6:54 PM (permalink)
      They warned us about this last summer, when the drought was in full force. It doesn't matter much what the corn is used for...if it didn't grow, it ain't there. And if it ain't there, then it gets more expensive. Along with trickle-down to the price of meat and poultry.
       
      Pretty much nothing anyone does will make everyone happy. Losing more jobs due to decreasing ethanol production will anger everyone. High food prices will anger everyone. Congress is screwed no matter which way they go.
       
      #3
        joerogo

        • Total Posts: 4463
        • Joined: 1/17/2006
        • Location: Pittston, PA
        Re:Corn prices Wed, 11/14/12 11:46 AM (permalink)
        My heart goes out to the small family farmers.  Especially if they do not grow their own feed.  Most already have full time jobs off the farm so they can keep their way of life intact.  I don't know how much more they can take.  
         
        #4
          pnwchef

          • Total Posts: 2236
          • Joined: 3/16/2011
          • Location: Kennewick, WA
          Re:Corn prices Wed, 11/14/12 1:46 PM (permalink)
          I haven't seen higher feed prices at the feed lot while they finish my cow this yr. The shortage will hurt other countries, more than ours. In our country we just have to pay more, in some countries they have to eat less. I would say we, as a nation will pay higher prices and work through the corn shortage and increased prices. I am putting in a Corn field for next year to offset my feed prices.........pnwc
           
          #5
            fishtaco

            • Total Posts: 742
            • Joined: 5/11/2010
            • Location: Roachdale, IN
            Re:Corn prices Wed, 11/14/12 2:52 PM (permalink)
            I was saying this in July and Aug. Do to the droughts the farmers around here were only getting 1/2 - 2/3 of the normal yields per acre. Soybeans too.
             
            #6
              tmiles

              • Total Posts: 1909
              • Joined: 10/1/2004
              • Location: Millbury, MA
              Re:Corn prices Tue, 11/27/12 12:37 PM (permalink)
              I recently read that over the past few years, "cost of gain" has gone from about 70 cents to 1.60 per lb.  As an example, if you buy a 50 lb lamb at $2/lb ($100), add 50 lbs in a feedlot @$1 ($50, aka, the "cost of gain"), you get a 100 lb lamb with a cost of $150. Sell it at $1.50/lb and you break even.
               
              The new "cost of gain" at 1.60 is unsustainable. People will not pay the new higher retail cost needed to make lamb feeding profitable. Inventories are building fast, so now we have a govt purchase program. Middle class buyers need to forgo lamb, but others will get it at a reduced or no cost. Go figure.
               
              #7
                tmiles

                • Total Posts: 1909
                • Joined: 10/1/2004
                • Location: Millbury, MA
                Re:Corn prices Sat, 04/13/13 3:34 PM (permalink)
                The corn belt seems to be getting rain, and there will be flooding in the Red River Valley. Only Nebraska seems to be getting the short end, and unirrigated corn in Nebraska is always iffy anyway. My earlier predictions of high pork prices have not come to pass......pig farmers must be having a very rough year.
                 
                Hopefully we get a good growing season. At least farmers will not be planting in too dry soil like last year. It is key to get enough rain after planting, and again at "silk". They actually run bus tours so that corn traders can drive around and see growth progress 1st hand. Lots of $$$$ is made and lost in the futures market regardless of how the farmers do.
                 
                #8
                  kland01s

                  • Total Posts: 2835
                  • Joined: 3/14/2003
                  • Location: Fox River Valley, IL
                  Re:Corn prices Sat, 04/13/13 4:11 PM (permalink)
                  Illinois declared their drought over but from what I have read on my local level, the deep levels have not. We rely on deep level wells. To me, it's still a wait and see.
                   
                  #9
                    ScreamingChicken

                    • Total Posts: 4726
                    • Joined: 11/5/2004
                    • Location: Stoughton, WI
                    Re:Corn prices Sat, 04/13/13 5:00 PM (permalink)
                    As I remember it, last year around here things were actually pretty good during planting; it was later in the season that the drought hit.
                     
                    The recent snows and rains have caused our drought status to be lifted as well.  It appears the topsoil has thawed enough for the moisture to be able to really get into the ground, and I've seen the rebirth of several ponds that dried up last year.  But it could be a completely different story in 3 months...
                     
                    #10
                      tmiles

                      • Total Posts: 1909
                      • Joined: 10/1/2004
                      • Location: Millbury, MA
                      Re:Corn prices Fri, 11/15/13 10:19 AM (permalink)
                      MetroplexJim


                      Of course, everything Congress does is with the very best of intentions which are, in turn, beset with unintended consequences. .........................  I hope for the day when the Will of the People causes Congress to gag on their contributions from "Big Agra" and "Big Sugar" and come to their senses.

                      I'm not holding my breath. 


                      I edited Jim's quote for brevity.
                      My brother in law has a saying, "I hate it when I'm right", and Jim can say that here. Corn prices are down now, but while they were high, lots of land in the conservation reserve was plowed under for corn. At "normal" corn prices, this land was not profitable as corn ground. Now that it is plowed, an unlikely coalition of farmers, conservationists, carbon tax folks, and agricultural economists has realized that corn ethanol is a problem. A combination of the amount of previously sequestered carbon that has been released, soil erosion, fertilizer contamination of waterways, and more, is showing corn based ethanol to be a bigger problem than coal fueled power plants. We live in interesting times.
                       
                      #11
                        MetroplexJim

                        • Total Posts: 3705
                        • Joined: 6/24/2007
                        • Location: McKinney, TX
                        Re:Corn prices Fri, 11/15/13 10:36 AM (permalink)
                        tmiles


                        MetroplexJim


                        Of course, everything Congress does is with the very best of intentions which are, in turn, beset with unintended consequences. .........................  I hope for the day when the Will of the People causes Congress to gag on their contributions from "Big Agra" and "Big Sugar" and come to their senses.

                        I'm not holding my breath. 


                        I edited Jim's quote for brevity.
                        My brother in law has a saying, "I hate it when I'm right", and Jim can say that here. Corn prices are down now, but while they were high, lots of land in the conservation reserve was plowed under for corn. At "normal" corn prices, this land was not profitable as corn ground. Now that it is plowed, an unlikely coalition of farmers, conservationists, carbon tax folks, and agricultural economists has realized that corn ethanol is a problem. A combination of the amount of previously sequestered carbon that has been released, soil erosion, fertilizer contamination of waterways, and more, is showing corn based ethanol to be a bigger problem than coal fueled power plants. We live in interesting times.


                        Unfortunately, commonsense is an uncommon commodity.
                         
                        But, when a Texan and a Bay Stater can agree, perhaps a better day is ahead for us all.
                         
                        #12
                          tmiles

                          • Total Posts: 1909
                          • Joined: 10/1/2004
                          • Location: Millbury, MA
                          Re:Corn prices Fri, 11/15/13 3:44 PM (permalink)
                          A Marine buddy, from Texas, once said to me, "Massachusetts produces 2 things, liberals and lobsters, and you don't look like a lobster to me"
                           
                          #13
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